Can Cincinnati beat LA in Super Bowl economic battle?

It’s a classic Super Bowl script.

The favored, big-city squad has one obstacle to football’s pinnacle prize — a franchise from a far smaller city back in the spotlight after a long string of losses.

It’s also something of a plot of economic battles — Los Angeles vs. Cincinnati — minus the political theater we’ve witnessed when other business-climate differences are aired.

L.A. is one of the world’s largest economies. Cincinnati is a modest-sized Midwest metropolis that’s rebounded from a manufacturing collapse of the 1980s-90s. The Ohio River town is home to giant nationwide retailers Kroger and Procter & Gamble. It’s also known for its distinctive chili, often served on noodles. And, still, factory jobs remain 12% of Cincy’s economy vs. 7% in L.A.

While other pundits speculate on who’ll win the Big Game, let’s walk through the economic competition between the two regions that, economically speaking, could not be more different.

To find a winner, my trusty spreadsheet dug into data from various government sources as well as Cyberstates, ESPN, Marcus & Millichap, the National Association of Realtors, Sharecare, U.S. News & World Report, WalletHub and Zillow …

1st Quarter: The basics

This economic battle can be seen as a battle between David and Goliath.

Population: L.A. County’s 10 million vs. Cincy’s Hamilton County at 830,000.

Businesses: L.A.’s 285,000 employers vs. 21,000.

Business output: $1 trillion a year in the L.A.-Orange County metro vs. Cincy’s $153 billion.

Score! It’s an L.A. touchdown because bulk matters in football and commerce, too. Score: 7-0.

But what’s the true cost of size vs. size? Ponder the bills from these competing lifestyles.

Cost of living: Cincinnati life is 6.5% cheaper than the national average. L.A. is 11.9% above. That adds up to a 20% cost difference between the two regions.

Why? L.A. goods are 13% pricier and services 4% more expensive. But Cincy utility bills run 2% higher.

No, really why? Housing is 123% costlier in L.A. — that’s more than double!

Or: You need a $49,000 annual income to “afford” Cincy’s $286,000 median-priced house (with 5% down) vs. an annual salary of $165,000 for L.A.’s $861,000 mid-priced residence.

Score! No surprise. This battle goes to Cincy, tying the game at 7-7.

2nd quarter: Payday

Let’s ponder relative opportunities for a paycheck.

Job growth: L.A. County’s 6.9% hiring spree past year tops Cincy’s 3.9%.

Unemployment: Cincy’s  — 2.8% joblessness vs. 6.2% for L.A. County.

Rebound: Cincy has better recovered from the pandemic, reaching 99.6% of employment from February 2020 vs. 95% for L.A.

Score! Cincy squeezes to the lead, 14-7.

L.A. bosses do try to compensate for the era’s lofty costs.

Pay: The typical L.A. salary in mid-2021 was $72,800, up 5% in a year or a $3,467 raise. In Cincy, it’s $65,468, up 2.1% or $1,347.

Bottom line: That’s 11% more pay and 157% larger pay hikes.

Score! Touchdown, L.A. We go to halftime tied, 14-14.

3rd quarter: Our house

How pricey is real estate? It’s not easy to enter the L.A. real estate game, but’s it’s been rewarding over the years.

Pandemic era, since the start of 2020: Cincy home values are actually up 19% vs. L.A.s’ 18%.

Post-Great Recession, since 2011: L.A.’s up 68% vs. Cincy’s 33%.

This century: L.A.’s up 250% vs. Cincy’s 81%.

Score? Easy one for L.A. as it leads again, 21-14.

But is local real estate a good investment? Past performance is simply history. Here’s one glance into investment property logic between these two towns.

Rents: A typical apartment in Cincy will likely rent for $1,160 a month this year, up 14% from pandemic-iced 2020. L.A.’s $2,580 projected rent is 16% higher over two years.

Vacancies: 3.1% of Cincy units are expected to be empty in 2022. L.A. should be 2.3%.

Prices: Investors should pay $72,832 for a Cincy rental unit this year, up 15% vs. 2020. In L.A., it’ll be $303,091 a unit, up 6%.

Yield: Blend the data together and a Cincy landlord might project an 18% gross return (before expenses) vs. 10% in L.A.

Score! A surprising play for Cincy (fun to see if such a bet pays off in the long run). It’s tied at 21-21.

4th quarter: Crunch time

How much fun is the Super Bowl? The event isn’t just highlighting football’s stars, it shines a spotlight on a region’s ability to wine, dine, lodge and entertain.

“Fun” jobs: Did you know Cincy’s job market has a slightly large share of jobs in leisure and hospitality — 12.8% vs. 12.4% for L.A.-Orange County?

Fandom: Rams all but sold out the home games this season. Cincy filled 92% of its seats. But, those weren’t Rams fans packing SoFi Stadium.

Scoreboard: One ranking of “most fun U.S. cities” had Cincy No. 17 and L.A. at No. 21.

Intangibles: Pacific Ocean. Disneyland. In-n-Out. And 73% of the time it’s sunny in L.A. vs. just half of the daylight hours of Cincy.

Score? A controversial call, not subject to review. It’s Cincy’s touchdown to lead 28-21 as the game winds down.

But who’s techier? Cutting-edge businesses don’t just win today’s economy, they set the future’s pace.

Tech pay: L.A.’s $94,000 a year, 83% above the average compared with Cincy’s $79,000 — 78% above average.

Share of jobs: 7.7% of L.A. is in tech vs. Cincy’s 7.4%

Impact: 10% of L.A.’s economic output comes from tech vs. Cincy’s 6%.

Score! No arguments here. L.A. touchdown, and it’s 28-28. Time for overtime.

OT: Gut check

Let’s leave this game’s “coin toss” to those “best cities” rankings — with grades adjusted to percentiles to account for varying numbers of ranked communities …

Overall: Cincy ranked in the 71st percentile vs. L.A.’s lowly 16th.

Wellness: L.A.’s lofty 96th percentile vs. Cincy’s 76th.

Safety: Cincy’s 34th percentile looks good vs. L.A.’s 8th.

Family friendliness: L.A.’s middling 54th percentile narrowly tops Cincy’s 49th.

To finally break the tie, we go to an average ranking of rankings …

Score! Cincinnati’s narrow ranking advantage (57-45) is worth a field goal to win this Super Bowl of regional economics, 31-28.

Jonathan Lansner is business columnist for the Southern California News Group. He can be reached at jlansner@scng.com

Source: Orange County Register