Inflation is producing, and hiding, hunger in Southern California

The start of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 was an economic nosedive for millions of Americans, as unemployment spiked in a matter of days and food banks and pantries were swamped by hungry people in need, poor and wealthy alike.

But now, even with unemployment down to pre-pandemic levels and wages rising slightly, the hunger situation nationally and in Southern California might be more dire.

“During the pandemic, we saw food lines we haven’t seen since the Depression,” said LaVal Brewer, chief executive of South County Outreach, a hunger and homeless prevention organization in Irvine.

“But conditions might actually be worse today than during the pandemic,” he added. “It’s not as visible, maybe, but it’s just as bad.”

Consider: This month, if recent trends hold, the Los Angeles Regional Food Bank will help about 800,000 people. That’s down from the 1 million people a month who were helped during the peak of the pandemic, but more than double the 300,000 helped during each of the last months of pre-pandemic 2019.

“We’re lucky. We have good relationships with donors, and that’s helping,” said the group’s spokesman David May. “But demand isn’t down all that much.”

Nonprofit food providers in Orange, Riverside and San Bernardino counties report similar, if not identical, trends.

But food experts say those numbers tell only part of the story.

During the pandemic, short-term relief programs from all levels of government directed food and money to food banks and others offering free nutrition. Though distribution was hampered by the spread and threat of COVID-19, most people who needed food in 2020 and 2021 usually could get it.

It’s unclear if that’s true today. Local food bank leaders say this year’s numbers don’t reflect the world of people who aren’t showing up for food but are still hungry.

Brewer, of South County Outreach, said his organization got food to 932 families last month – an all-time high. Though he was happy to see that people view his agency as a welcome resource, Brewer noted that an all-time high for giving away food isn’t a good thing. And, like others, he believes even more people need help but aren’t getting it.

Again, that story is partly reflected in numbers.

Orange County Food Bank is on track to give out about 27 million pounds of food this year, either directly to people in need or indirectly to smaller food pantries and others, according to the nonprofit. Though that’s up from the 23 million pounds the group distributed in 2019, it’s well under the 63 million pounds of food OC Food Bank handled last year.

But where the 2020-’21 spike in demand was met with an influx of food donations and cash, this year’s decline is a supply-side issue.

“That lower total this year is a reflection of less food to give out, not a drop in demand,” said Mark Lowry, the organization’s director of operations.

“The truth is, we don’t know how many people are actually in need.”

Lowry pointed to an email exchange this week in which he saw a request from a group to feed 500 families, but a reply that noted the Food Bank could only supply food for about half that number.

“Those other families aren’t getting help, but it doesn’t mean they don’t need it,” he said. “Hunger hasn’t gone anywhere.”

Eating away at budgets

The problem is inflation, which Lowry and others said is adding to the region’s hunger problem in different ways, some obvious and some hidden.

On the obvious side, inflation means basic nutrition is tougher to afford. Food prices rose nearly 8% over the past year in the Los Angeles region, according to the latest numbers from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Prices for energy (gasoline) jumped 23.8%, while prices for other items – shelter, clothing, transportation – rose at a more modest 6%.

That is prompting low-wage earners and fixed-income seniors – who comprise the vast majority of people served by food pantries – to seek help with their food bills, the rare budget item that can be reduced from month to month.

“The cost of living is pushing more people who wouldn’t have seen themselves needing food support in 2019 into a different situation today,” said Brewer.

But the less-obvious problem is inflation’s effect on non-profit food providers. Though they operate like any other business, with bills for gas and rent and other expenses, they don’t have the option of passing those higher costs to their customers.

“We deliver with trucks, and we service about 300 pantries,” said Claudia Keller, executive director at Second Harvest Food Bank of Orange County. “That’s a lot of gas.”

Brewer echoed that.

“All of the same issues you see in a household, or a business, are seen here,” he said. “We’re dancing the inflation dance ourselves.”

At most food banks in Southern California, 90% or more of the product given to people in need is donated, either from individuals or farmers, or grocery stores or restaurants. That softens, but doesn’t eliminate, the pain of rising grocery prices. But it does curtail some of those donations. Broadly speaking, food bank operators said the same economic dymanic that brings more people to the food bank – inflation – also pushes the food providers a little closer to closing their doors.

“We’re not worried for now. But we do wonder if we can keep the lights on in six months,” Brewer said.

Inflation also hurts food banks by changing the national narrative. During the pandemic, local and national media were focused on stories about people in cars (sometimes high-priced cars) idling in muli-mile-long lines as they waited for a box of food. Today, the news focus is about how economic woes persist even as the job market is growing.

One story tends to prompt people to think about food banks, the other does not. For organizations that survive on donations, that shift in perception has hurt.

“We’re not the big story right now,” said Lowry of the OC Food Bank. “That means we’re not top of mind. People are still generous, but people have moved on.”

Others also note that inflation is driving hunger.

In September, the Urban Institute released a study that found that 1 in 5 Americans currently face some form of food insecurity, roughly the same as during the height of the pandemic.

In its report, the Urban Institute – a Washington, D.C.-based non-profit that tracks economic data that affects American families – described the situation this way:

“High food price inflation, along with elevated costs for other basic needs, such as transportation and rent, have likely eroded food budgets in the last year.

“In addition, some of the safety net responses that buffered food insecurity in 2021 are no longer in place. Unemployment rates have declined significantly since early 2020, and wages have increased for many, but wage growth has not kept pace with rapidly rising inflation.”

The study also found that the greatest need was among families with young children and in communities of color. During the past year, the report found, the number of people expressing a severe need for food had nearly doubled, from about 5% to about 9% of the population.

Another cliff?

If the start of the pandemic was a economic reckoning for all Americans, a deadline coming early next year might result in a second hit for lower-income Californians.

In October, the state announced that it would end the official public health emergency prompted by COVID-19 on Feb. 28, 2023, nearly three years after the initial order was issued.

Though the state wants to keep some health programs in place and, among other things, allow nurses to administer COVID-19 vaccines, local food bank officials fear the state will cut the emergency allotment for the state’s food-supplement program, CalFresh. If that plays out — and it’s unclear, for now, if the state plans to end the subsidy – lower-income people might get less each month from CalFresh. That, in turn, could strain budgets that for many are already beyond breaking.

“When federal (pandemic) assistance subsided, we knew it was coming and we could deal with it. And the generosity of community – our community in particular – has remained up because people know we need it,” said Keller of Second Harvest.

“But benefits for individuals, that’s different. If you’re getting CalFresh benefits, and that goes away, that could be a real food cliff, again, for a lot of people.”

Source: Orange County Register