Super Tuesday: How many states doing ‘all-mail’ voting might surprise you

This year, as in 2020, California’s delegates will be at stake on Super Tuesday, March 5. Its elections will decide the largest share of delegates for the presidential race for both parties. Here’s a look at the presidential and congressional races.

Democratic primary and caucus results

President Joe Biden has little opposition and has 202 delegates, after primaries in New Hampshire, South Carolina, Nevada and Michigan.

There will be 1,421 delegates (37.7%) at stake on Super Tuesday. Biden will likely reach the nomination threshold by March 12, when another 241 delegates are in play.

 

Republican primary and caucus results

Former President Donald Trump has 110 delegates, and he is 1,105 away from winning the nomination. There will be 874 delegates (36%) at stake Tuesday.

Nikki Haley has 20 delegates, and businessman Ryan Binkley has zero delegates.

Will Trump clinch on Super Tuesday?

Not likely. The former president will likely lock in the nomination March 12 with 1,223 delegates. In a worst-case scenario, the campaign estimates he will become the designated nominee no later than March 19.

Trump crossed the delegate threshold necessary to win the 2020 nomination — 1,276 — on March 17, 2020.

California Republicans changed their delegate rule over the summer. If no contender secures a majority, the delegates will be distributed proportionally. But if someone (Trump) does get a majority (50% plus 1), they nab all 169 delegates.

‘All-mail’ voting

Eight states – California, Colorado, Hawaii, Nevada, Oregon, Utah, Vermont and Washington – conduct what are commonly referred to as “all-mail” elections. In these states, voting is conducted primarily, although not necessarily exclusively, by mail.

Congressional races

There are 33 U.S. Senate seats up for regular election in 2024 — 10 held by Republicans, 20 by Democrats and three by independents who caucus with Democrats.

Two special elections are also scheduled for Nov. 5, 2024. One will be held to fill the last two years of the six-year term that Ben Sasse (R-Neb.) was elected to in 2020. The other is to fill the seat that Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.) was elected to in 2018. Feinstein died on Sept. 29. The Senate seat held by Alex Padilla (who was appointed after Kamala Harris became vice president) is up for regular election Nov. 5.

House election landscape

The chart below compares U.S. House race ratings from The Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections as of February and shows just 24 seats are toss-ups at this point.

 

Major money

There were more than 40 candidates running for Senate in California. More than $69 million has been raised for this election cycle, according to Opensecrets.org, a campaign finance watchdog.

Here are the top fundraisers so far:

Adam Schiff (D) | $31 million

Katie Porter (D) | $27 million

Barbara Lee (D) | $4.9 million

Steve Garvey (R) | $2.1 million

Lexi Reese (D) | $1.8 million

(As of February)

You can find the fundraising for all the races in California at Opensecrets.org here.

Sources: Gallup, Ballotpedia.com, National Conference of State Legislatures, Opensecrets.org, Reuters, The Associated Press

Source: Orange County Register