These 10 maps explain California’s changing population

During the first year of the coronavirus pandemic, California’s population dropped by nearly 262,000 people to about 39.2 million, new census figures show.

While COVID-19 pushed the death rate up in every state in the nation, that wasn’t the biggest factor in California’s decline from July 1, 2020, to June 30, 2021. Instead, according to census estimates, the primary reason was the huge gap between how many people moved out of the state and how few moved in.

Every county, however, did not fare equally. Here are 10 maps and a chart that show how the population grew and shrank in different counties, and how California fits in with national trends.

1. Big shifts in population

It was coastal California that lost the most residents, led by Los Angeles County, whose population dropped by almost 160,000 people — more than any other county in the nation. Interior counties, however, grew; Riverside County’s gain of nearly 36,000 residents was the third-largest in the U.S., after Maricopa County, Arizona (home to Phoenix) and Collin County, Texas (north of Dallas).

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2. A different picture by percent

Though Southern California counties saw the largest shifts in raw numbers of people, percentage-wise the biggest changes came in and around the Bay Area. San Francisco (which is a city and county) lost more than 6% of its population, while San Benito County grew by 3.4%.

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There are two components that contribute to population changes: natural change, which is the difference between the number of births and deaths, and net migration, which is the difference between how many people move in and out. Here’s a deeper look at each of those factors.

3. Death rates rose

The pandemic increased mortality rates nationwide, and California was no exception. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, more than 332,000 California residents died from July 1, 2020, to June 30, 2021. State data shows that more than 56,600 people died from COVID-19 during that period. However, the pattern shown on the map below, with the highest death rates in the far northern and Sierra regions of California, is fairly typical — those areas have older populations.

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4. Birth rates dropped

California parents welcomed more than 424,000 new babies in the first pandemic year, down from an estimated 448,000 the year before and 452,000 the year before that. Birth rates were highest in the Central Valley and tend to correspond with counties that have a younger population.

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5. More births than deaths

That difference of 92,000 more births than deaths was the second-highest of any state, and sixth-highest per capita, thanks to an average birth rate and low death rate compared to the rest of the country. Nationwide, almost three-quarters of counties had more deaths than births, compared to only 28% in California (16 out of 58 counties). In the decade pre-pandemic, it was typical for about 40% of counties nationwide, and about 13 counties in California, to have more deaths than births each year.

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6. A whole lot more people moved away

In 30 of California’s counties, more people moved in than out. But with the exception of Riverside and San Bernardino counties, most of them were small- to medium-size counties, so their gains couldn’t make up for the massive losses elsewhere, especially in the pricey Bay Area and L.A. County. Altogether, almost 353,000 more people left the Golden State than moved in — more than the entire population of Anaheim. That’s the largest decrease due to migration of all 50 states, although New York and Illinois had higher per-capita rates.

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7 and 8. International migration offset some of the losses

The migration rate is broken into two components: people moving in and out from other places in the U.S., and people moving into and out of foreign countries. California lost about 367,000 residents through domestic migration, but gained more than 14,000 through international migration. In fact, some of the counties with the largest negative domestic migration rates also had the largest positive international migration rates, including Los Angeles, San Francisco, Santa Clara, Alameda, San Mateo and Orange counties.

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9. How the pandemic did, didn’t change trends

California’s birth rate has been dropping for years, and the pandemic exacerbated that trend. A Southern California News Group analysis found that the region where the birth rate dropped most in 2020-21 compared to the decade prior to the pandemic was Southern California.

The death rate has jumped since the pandemic started. Comparing 2020-21 to the pre-pandemic decade, the death rate was higher in 52 of California’s 58 counties. (The exceptions were Trinity, Inyo, Lake, Colusa, Glenn and Yuba counties.) The increase was sharpest in the regions hardest hit by the first two coronavirus surges: Southern California, the Bay Area and the San Joaquin Valley.

After several years of declines, international migration rates leveled off somewhat in the past two years, while domestic migration rates — already negative — have plunged statewide.

10. Nationwide population change

The United States population increased by almost 393,000 from July 1, 2020, to June 30, 2021, to a total of about 331.9 million, the Census Bureau estimated. That’s a result of almost 3.6 million births, more than 3.4 million deaths and a gain of 245,000 people through international migration. Here are the states with the largest population gains and losses:

• Texas: 310,288
• Florida: 211,196
• Arizona: 98,330
• North Carolina: 93,985
• Georgia: 73,766–
• Louisiana: -27,156
• Massachusetts: -37,497
• Illinois: -113,776
• California: -261,902
• New York: -319,020

11. Nationwide percent change

That growth of 393,000 people is an increase of 0.1% — the lowest annual increase since the nation’s founding, according to the Census Bureau. Here are the states with the largest gains and losses by percent:

• Idaho: 2.9%
• Utah: 1.7%
• Montana: 1.7%
• Arizona: 1.4%
• South Carolina: 1.2%–
• Louisiana: -0.6%
• California: -0.7%
• Hawaii: -0.7%
• Illinois: -0.9%
• New York: -1.6%

Source: Orange County Register