US Senate polls show flipflopping projections in Porter-Garvey scrap for second place

Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Burbank) remains the frontrunner in California’s U.S. Senate race, but it’s unclear if Republican candidate and ex-Dodger Steve Garvey holds the lead over Rep. Katie Porter (D-Irvine) or if the two are deadlocked for second.

Two polls released this week offer different answers, serving as a good reminder that one: this is a very competitive race; and two: polls are an imperfect measure of voter preference.

A Public Policy Institute of California poll showed a virtual tie with Porter holding 19% of likely voter’s support and Garvey holding 18%, while an Emerson College Poll showed Garvey ahead of Porter with 22% of likely voters’ support compared to 16%.

Both polls had Schiff leading the race with around a quarter of likely voters’ support and Rep. Barbara Lee (D-Oakland) trailing in fourth with 10% or less of the vote. The remaining 23 candidates each captured 4% or less of the vote.

The top two vote-getters on March 5 will proceed to a November runoff. Schiff, for his part, stands to benefit from facing off against Garvey in deep blue California, where a Republican has not been elected to the Senate since 1988. A Schiff vs. Porter showdown could mean more competition, more party infighting and more campaign spending.

The two polls were conducted in close succession with a similar number of respondents.

The PPIC Poll took place from Feb. 6 to 13 using 1,075 likely voters, while the Emerson poll took place from Feb. 16 to 18 using 935 likely voters. Neither captured voters’ response to the final Senate debate.

So how should voters make sense of these seemingly contradictory results?

There are three key things to keep in mind says Cal State Long Beach assistant professor of Political Science Matt Lesenyie —  the margin of error, the calculation of likely voters and the limited number of votes between second and third place.

Polling is not a precise science and every result comes with a margin for error. PPIC reported their margin as plus or minus 3.9 percentage points and Emerson reported plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

“Polls report a specific number you don’t say, for example, Garvey is somewhere between 16 and 20%. That just isn’t as interesting,” said Lesenyie. “But, any number you see is really just in the range of where we’re pretty sure the true number lies,” said Lesenyie.

So, while the Emerson poll shows a Garvey holding a 22% lead to Porter’s 16%, the three percentage point margin of error means its statistically possible that the candidates could be closer to a tie.

Another potential factor behind the flipflopping fight for second place is the fact that there aren’t that many votes dividing second and third place.

“We’re talking about a little over one in ten voters when we’re sorting out Porter from Garvey,” said Lesenyie. “So, am I surprised to see some jostling? Not in the least.”

A final reason that could be fueling the variation is a difference over who is considered a likely voter.

“Different pollsters have different estimations of who they think will turn out and they model their data results from that,” said Lesenyie. “A big number for Garvey would suggest they think more Republicans are going to show up.”

Pollsters infamously underestimated the Republican turnout in the November 2016 election, which Donald Trump won despite being repeatedly forecast as the loser. Then in the 2022 midterm, polls overestimated Republican turnout for U.S. Senate races and the promised “red wave” failed to materialize at the ballot box allowing Democrats to hang onto their narrow majority in the Senate.

At the end of the day, poll results are a well informed guess and not a fait accompli.

But when it comes to California’s Senate race — which has generated more advertising spending than any other statewide seat in the nation — one thing is clear: the fight is far from over.

Source: Orange County Register